Posted on 08/04/2011


Ok, so right now what we’re seeing is panic and I think it could continue into tomorrow’s session (possibly ending when Europe closes tomorrow ~10:30 a.m. Chicago time).

Nothing has been spared today. Gold which was bid up this morning on safe haven status is now down almost $15 on margin selling (my opinion). Silver’s intraday range is massive (42.295 high and 38.47 lows).

The volatility index (VIX) is screaming higher – synonomous with panic. It takes a whole lot of chutzpah to get long ahead of tomorrow’s jobs number, but if you do so in a disciplined (read: WITH a tight stop) you could take a look at 1210, which is RIGHT where we’re trading now.

Yesterday’s Natural Gas idea was a terrible one. Stopped out already (but I would look for another place VERY soon to sell puts in NG). Crude volatility popped in a big way with implieds trading around 40% in the front month.

Short term Treasuries traded negative today (indicative of PANIC). In essence, PAYING the Govt. to get your money back in a month.

There is an hour and a half left in the session for equities and I fear for the worst, but wouldn’t be surprised if we bounce a bit. Tomorrow will be telling.

The European Central Bank’s efforts to tighten may have been the most ill advised on record. Well done Trichet. Be careful because the European debt situation could give way to a global contagion and more talk of systemic risk.

The good news is the significant move in Crude and the products (Gasoline in particular) is like a pseudo tax CUT for consumers.

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