Beware of……

Posted on 08/12/2011


……the last hour of trade in a largely “risk off” environment.

Risk over 2/3 days is much “riskier” than overnight.

Oil reversed into the close and I wouldn’t be shocked to see equities follow suit.

Gold is 4% off the week (and all time) highs ($1,818). The VIX (cash) is 23% off highs (48). The Sept S&P futures are 100 points off Tuesday (overnight) lows (1077) or 9.3%.  In my mind this is a currency and liquidity issue (race to bottom/beggar thy neighbor) and Gold is the ultimate safe haven given the circumstances. Until the shiny barbaric relic really sells off, I don’t feel comfortable.

No doubt we’re working off of short term oversold levels, but YESTERDAY morning the S&P futures flirted with 1100 again and TODAY they nearly traded 1190.  Are we in 8% better shape than we were 30 hours ago? I realize the weekly jobless claims were below 400k, but expect them to be revised higher next week (because that happens EVERY week) as a result of FAA (airline) furloughs.

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